A couple of days ago I noticed an article on conservative's "cold anger". I think it captures things almost perfectly.
I've always said Canada tends to have a populace that is very slow to anger. You let people be who they are. But, there's a tipping point where the country just goes into a rage. It's a very Scandanavian thing. But it's also a very Native thing.
Why? Because it is extremely adaptive. Islamic terrorists show one angle as to why it is adaptive. It reflects a highly cohered group. Highly cohered groups are almost always adaptive. But, they can get outcompeted by larger groups. So what you need is an open group that has norms or tests to detect likely freeloaders and then the ability to rapidly phase change into a suicidal mob. But who's target of suicidal angst is something that is winnable.
That's where jihadist Islam fails. It has optimized itself for the long game. By doing so it is risking existential annihilation by the western militaries. But the larger group seems to have bet, by way of its outlier population (extremists), that it is sufficiently seeded across the world to survive. I would wager, a part of these fused identities has wagered that Ottoman or German level genocides are unlikley. There are no signs that radicalism is going to be stopped. If there were signs, any suicidal nut would be looking to see if their terrorism would cause the death of their extended family and their village. This doesn't happen (outside of the Taliban doing it). So, its pretty clear that existential risks are minimal. This makes long-game calculus a much better pay off than it normally ever is in evolutionary games.
CONSERVATIVE COLD ANGER
As the articles mention, conservatives feel numerous systemic pressures building against them. Twitter, facebook, and google censor them like nothing. And, then tell lawmakers to their face that it is not intentional, it is just enforcement of pro-social norm policy.
Supression of conservatives in the public space was huge up until a month or two ago. BLM and Antifa goons had claimed ownership of public gatherings. Any pro non-progressive group was purposefully excluded from space by the charge of "we can't let these Nazi's organize". Except that Nazi and white supremacist was now applied to anyone right of AOC. Black people had their racial identity erased. The most vile racist language now comes from BLM Antifa goons. But it is never mentioned in any news feed. It's just not the right narrative. And right wing media tends not to obsess over speech the way the left does (maybe to their demise, but doing so would also likely erode their founding moral cohesive ethos - classical liberalism).
So, as I look around the nets, interact with youth, union leaders, teachers, health professionals, I see a growing sense of people having their heads down in the sand, holding back the expression of their angst until after the November election. You read between the lines that they still expect rule of law to provide a barrier against chaos, extra-legal rule, and mob violence which is politically condoned. Plus, should they do anything overt, the whole system will crash down on them and use it to further de-legitimize them. The difference in coverage between Charlottesville and the 120 days + of Antifa rioting and violence is stark.
But, once the election ends, I think people's tolerance will be used up. The left will be going crazy with a Trump win. Trump will push all their buttons as he puts people like Flynn in charge of the DNI and starts to think about replacing Barr with Giulianni due to Barr's inability and unwillingness to institute reform.
But as those "resist" riots play out. The cold anger of the right is going to go hot. Trump rallies are how people are testing the waters of expression. The job firings and digital tar-and-featherings, while as strong as ever, aren't cowering people (other than academics). Project veritas is going crazy with the number of whistleblowers coming their way who are knowingly giving up their livelihoods.
A cold anger has been created. It is not the hot suicidal range of the identity fused jihadist. Rather it is the cold calculation of a soldier storming a beach. You know the odds aren't good. But, the false hysteria that its death to step out is gone. The adaptive signals of the group are sufficient to support a rational decision to go into the meat grinder. Politically, I think conservatives know how the Nov riots are going to go. It is going to be ugly. But I think they have decided to engage.
That leaves only one question - how violent will the BLM Antifa groups be towards the rural folk and subarbanites who simply sit down on the ground while the Black Clad thugs surround and threaten them. What percentage of the Cold Angered will head down the Proud Boys path of retributional violence? What percentage will start to become pro-active (assassins)?
I'm willing to wager, it will be quite a bit.
Why?
Because adaptively, it will need to be a sufficient quantity of people doing sufficient actions to make the other side realize that the whole country could go to pot. Until CNN is truly scared enough to feel a mob, with nor restraints, is headed their way looking for a scalp, the fire will continue to get more logs thrown on it. And, during that process, a growing number of Cold Angered rationalists will turn Jihadi. Then it's just a numbers game about the civil war model the States enters into.
