Nov 3 week riots: Predictions

Early polling suggests a Trump win. Campaign actions hint at an electoral blowout (think - Minnesota is in play!).

So how will the Left's commitment to protest intersect with the Right's growing jubilance and rally energy?

Social media and legacy media are certain to tamp down any proclamations of victory. But, I suspect, electorally, things will be pretty clear. While many swing states will have a razor thin margin that mail in votes and post dated fraud could flip, I suspect Trumpers are going to ignore all priestly advice and are going to go CRAZY in the street.

I don't think one can underestimate the enthusiasm that gets generated when a persecuted group overcomes all odds and all institutional pressure against them and wins. Here are the adaptive energizers:

• lots of public physical assaults against Trump voters
• Trump yard sign vandalism
• obvious social media throttling and censorship against Trumpists (& centrists)
• the Biden corruption vs Russia hoax journalism differentials
• the McCarthyist blackballing and deplatforming of mainstream conservatism
• the violent ANTIFA - BLM "protests" & their "non-violent" property destruction
• the rise of racial supremacy (KKK level progressive intersectionalism)
• the meta-narrative-breaking rise of minority-based Trump groups (blacks for Trump, gays for Trump)
• etc

So, I think Trumpists will head out Tues and Wed for YUGE celebrations. If Trump rallies are drawing 50k+ then the celebrations are going to be huge. People locked down by Corona are going to want to get together. The Trump energy is very much based on "positive" energy as opposed to ANTIFA styled "tear it down" energy. There are going to be street parties galore, especially in locked-down blue states. It will be a big FU to ppl like Whitmore.

The suburban mom group that ANTIFA-BLM relies on for coverage will likely hold off until the election is called by official channels. I don't think the masses will have the energy necessary for early protests. They will be despondent because of the fake poll lies. And, social media has been wise enough to try and forestall confrontation by setting structural throttles for conclusive election declarations. Biden karens seem highly likely to follow the advice of their moral priests and secular shamans.

That means their protest energy should peak closer to the weekend. The media will have time to properly spin "the steal". And social media should have had time to rip out broker nodes on conservative social networks.

That leaves Proud Boy types and Antifa types squaring off on the weekend, with suburban moms flushing out Antifa numbers. That spells bad news for the more violent Trumpers. They are likely to get really hurt. Progressives angst is going to be huge. And, this group of Trump aligned nationalists have shown they won't back down and suffer public space to be fully controlled by those who refuse to acknowledge rule-of-law (and its associated social contact) expectations.

But, maybe, Trump enthusiasm will continue into the weekend. I doubt it. I suspect they think "rule of law has spoken", and will feel no need to rub victory in.

That leaves defence of public space as the only likely reactionary dynamic. I suspect many will give law & order a chance here. I suspect they expect Trump to pull in the national guard and "take the gloves off". That's kind of stupid since most of that power is at the state level. But, nobody said ppl are rational....

... that leaves a worse reactionary backlash as all but inevitable as violent weekend rioting fails to get quelled. It gets even worse as mainstream media figures express solidarity with "intensely peaceful protests".

But I don't think you'll see many rightwing militias coming out to do police's jobs for them. I suspect you'll see a growing COLD anger. You'll certainly have a number of proud boy groups getting nasty. But, conservatives tend to be slow to anger. Hence you'll see growing background energization on the right until it suddenly breaks in two to four years.  

That's why I continue to think an assassination based entry into civil war by rightwing extremists is the most likely vector for civil war. The exception I've always predicted is if in 2024 a reactionary wokeist gets into power. Then the right will go down the road of unbridled mob violence as 2nd A rights get trampled and UK styled authoritarianism gets enacted..."for people's own safety".