Saturday, February 3, 2018

Trump & the Reagan Air Traffic Controller Moment

This is some wild speculation, but I think the way Trump has set up the Mueller counter pressure creates some potentially interesting paths.  Here's one.

It is probable that fighting between the White House and the FBI will continue.  Trump is likely to get a special counsel to investigate his enemies, and Mueller is unlikely to be pressured into dropping anything.

Trump's attacks and the dysfunction in Washington will continue to erode Intelligence service morale. Who wants to work in a place where you have to take sides, but will be lynched when you do so. Infighting is never good, and I don't think there is much of a question that the intelligence services have become as polarized as the US as a whole.

So what would Trump do?  Imagine the resignations keep coming in, and the media and DNC as full of blind vengeful hubris as they have always been start to push memes about Trump's destruction of these institutions.  This is an easy sell, especially if some more heads roll.

But, now here comes the Reagan moment (the person Trump emulates completely).  Imagine Trump gets up and says 'Our intelligence services have become too big, too unwieldily, and the good intentions of those on the ground floor have been able to be turned into weapons by their political heads.  Many of you have felt that my firing of Mueller is a step too far.  For those that think so, I am happy to accept your resignations."

Stupid right......   However, here is the logic of this potential path.  Trump takes the opposition's weapon, a few people leaving the FBI, and the Mueller (or equivalent) purge and redirects it into an obvious trap for the opposition to walk into.  How can the DNC not take the opposite position.  This splits their base. You will end up with a lot of ANTIFA's calling for stronger intelligence services just because of deranged spite.  Some won't and this will cause lots of infighting over the "sell outs".

But what does it get Trump? He gets a smaller FBI, NSA, etc. How do you weaken the powers of these departments? Organizationally you shrink their budget and manpower.  This is a beautiful potential move. Trump gets to be perceived as shrinking the government and government control by harnessing the backlash of his Russiagate counter-move.

Most people would never in a million years play it this way, but I suspect it fits right into Trump's "Wicked Problem Playbook".

Is it likely - no, but it is probably possible.

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