Thursday, July 27, 2023

The New Serfdom

 I'll have to do a more in depth post on this sometime, but for now, let me just say I think people are wise to appreciate the extent to which Western countries, in particular ones like Canada, are purposefully tending toward Serfdom traps.

Historically, one branch into serfdom was the gradual emancipation of slaves, say in the late Roman empire, into land/trade locked peasantry. In essence, they could have increased freedoms as long as the state was guaranteed products of labour.


Another branch into serfdom was the erosion of rough forms of middle classdom into serfdom via ever increasing tax excises, or increasing governmental authoritarianism.  I don't think slippery slope tax slavery was very common, but I'm still digging through alternative ways this dynamic may have been expressed in historical contexts. The Dawn of Everything makes strong suggestions that changes toward authoritarianism produced a controlled class of people, and that outward looking expansion often created a dynamic where this class of people was viewed as soldier and labour good producers. Basically authoritarian regimes evolved to seeing this class less as autonomous individuals and more as state owned production goods - much like cattle.


Late medieval serfdom tended to view the peasantry much like the cattle analogy - as state owned objects of production.


MODERN EQUIVALENCY

Modern equity based socialism has almost fully evolved the landscape trap for serfdom. In Canada for instance, the governmental behaviour of the two ruling socialist leaders demonstrate a HUGE extraction of resources from the middle class toward the 1) upper classes, 2) bureaucracy, 3) and somewhat toward poorer classes.


Tendencies toward subsidization will likely solidify the serf trap.


Who pays for these expenditures? The middle class.  Right now this is seen as bearable, but as taxes increase by a few percent each year, and real wages drop, over the course of multiple decades you will reach a point of guaranteed immiseration. "You will own nothing and be happy" is, I believe the right wing mantra.  Turchin sees this in terms of his elite overproduction collapse model. Fair enough.


The dynamical parallel between modern and ancient serfdom is in the governing view of the role of the middle class as tools of production rather than as autonomous individuals (classical liberalism).


Trudeau' hubris makes this rather evident. The middle class' role is to support the poor.  This is what "makes one Canadian".  Trudeau's 1700's kingly attitudes enables some more parallels. It is very plausible that Trudeau is purposefully increasing Canada's population not just to grab the 0.1%GDP boost per 100k immigrants, but also to up our relative international position.  Bigger societies have bigger influence. Historically we see authoritarian leanings in Kings expressed via wars of conquest. You grew your crop of serfs up so that each generation you could roll the dice on your big war campaign. I would be VERY surprised if those tendencies had evolved out of our population. Rather, I think they are just expressed more pro-socially via immigrant based country population expansion. There are certainly other superficial reasons for this, but I suspect they are just proximate covers for some ultimate biology.


In post-Rome, I believe the transition of slaves into serfs also created political power. Slaves had no voice. But land/trade based peasants had at least some influence. The Christian church used this to their advantage. That is how bishops emerged as political powerhouses. Alms tied the poor to religious officials. That then increased the secular power of these officials. This then led to the conjoining of religion and governance in the form of "Bishops".


Today socialism buys of the poor for political support via money grown by the middle class. Ballot harvesting only magnifies this issue.  



WHEN WILL THIS BE NOTICED

I don't think the serfdom trap will be noticed until a sufficient number of middle class producers drop out of the labour marker so that state funds become insufficient.  Post lock-down we already see a collapse in labour market participation.


It is not unreasonable to speculate that equity logic may lead the state to suggest that individuals of certain identities who have employable skills should be expected to work. No dole for that white college boy - the 'state' invested in them. In theory, this could be enforced with expectations of base tax contributions based on identity factors. Why have just an income tax percentage when you can set a base rate "contribution". For instance, if you are a white male with no intersectional privilege then you should be able to contribute $2000 a year plus income percentages.  This step has already occurred with child support.  The logical transition from child support to marginalized people support is minor and would be politically advantageous to push via equity.


That is all you need for serfdom.  How do you escape? The middle class functionally doesn't. Each new job advancement comes with increasing production burdens. Escape from these likely would need to come with proper religious/political conversion and with sufficient obeisances to guarantee entry into exploitive class dynamics.


 

Friday, March 3, 2023

Putin's Solution to Bureaucratic Capture

 Rather than creating another draft that I won't ever get to cleaning up, here's a Sundance styled twitter thread on how I see Putin creating (attempting to create) a sustainable solution against bureaucratic capture.




/1 Seems like Putin is trying to figure a way to avoid technocratic (bureaucratic) capture. West has embraced it. Putin's gaming around it. Only a "noble" caste who has Russia's best interest can be "trusted" to lead the country and avoid Soviet-like capture



/2 This is a Locke-like civil decision. People have lots of freedom (at least in certain spheres) but no freedom to change/critique government or Oligarchy caste. So in theory, Putin Russia has more freedom in many/some spheres than us in the West (e.g. no DEI priesthood)



/3 My support for this comes from commentary on Putin's extreme dislike for Soviet bureaucracy. He thought bureaucratic capture is what destroyed his country during early and late Soviet times. (brother died of starvation)



/4 This approach is in opposition to the West's authoritarian democracy model/well. West maximizes bureaucratic/technocratic capture. This guarantees the "arrow of history/progress". It will be more and more Toxic Caring until the system collapses.



/5 How do you avoid technocratic capture? Keep down the size of your bureaucracy and its power. How to do this? Keep all power in the hands of a few. (Oligarchy).




/6 How do you select this Oligarchy? The same way religions (or radical moralized groups like NPR or the Woke do) - by selecting for virtue and purging those who get flagged as usurpers/corruptors. See and latest podcast for virtue as a selector



/7 Virtue based selection for Russia Oligarchy is probably why you see so many assassinations amongst Putin competitors. He seems to be trying (in vain?) to get a purified Oligarchy (that has Russia's best interests at heart-ie avoid bureaucratic capture) that it can be sustained



/8 But sustaining this bureaucratic repressing Oligarchy is EXACTLY against the West's ethos. So is this the WW3 manifestation of the culture wars, as per ? Or is this deeper - a war on the role of Bureaucracy?




/9 I'd wager the West-Putin war is a war on the role of bureaucracy, not 'woke culture' Fits in with 's elite over-production theory, and even Graeber's anthropology (Dawn of Everything book). Matches what we know about ancient Chinese Mandarin-class pwr struggles




/10 So Putin's likely model is to have a cadre of Oligarchs who's selection ethos is prevent bureaucratic capture so individual freedom can be maximized (in areas other than political system decisions & critiques)





/11 So his fight for 'sphere of influence' border buffer is as much about buffering against 'an end of history' bureaucratic creep, as it is about pure military tactical positioning.




/12 Like Europe wanted to hedge in Napoleonic 'liberty' to prevent its contamination into other countries, Putin is trying to hedge in Woke bureaucratic capture Putin won't let those ideas of another "end of history' make another turn of the dialetic (ie another Marx revolution)



/13 And that is another dimension as to why NATO membership is so dangerous for him - It guarantees the bureaucratization of a country. And that guarantees and 'arrow of progress' toward socialism. But more than this, toward bureaucratic capture.



/14 If you don't think any of this theory is plausible, try to game theory out some structural solutions to avoid bureaucratic capture You'll come up with its embrace (West's new authoritarian democracy), dictatorial control of it (China's communist capitalism), or this theory


/15 You may also come up with some of the indigenous American political solutions Graeber mentions in "The Dawn of Everything". I'm wondering if these, non-hierarchical gov' solutions, aren't what the Right's meta-narrative ethos will turn into. "Freedom" just ain't cutting it.



/16 So when tries to get a strong enough narrative to counter the cult-level appeal of Woke (toxic) Caring, you may have to move all the way toward radical individualism with a radically flat governance structure (see Graeber's Dawn of Everything)