Well it looks like I blew the election prediction. I figured Trump would sneak by in PA, WI and maybe MI for a 290 - 300 take. Now it looks like even GA may flip blue.
Both sides' fall-back states are getting the late votes they need that just cause them to eek by. It's a game of he who counts last gets to count just right. In this PA is king, and mail-in voting from big urbans is your savior. See the Barnes video (he seems well used to the chicanery played in Bush-Gore Florida).
The real issue is obviously, should late votes count (rule of law) or does every vote matter. The latter matches the Black Lives Matter ethos so perfectly, I suspect it reflects the major moral fault line facing the US (and other countries).
Do you go so progressive that everything matters that no one can be left out or not made to achieve equal outcomes? Or, do you stay hard nosed, keeping tight arbitrary norms, which inevitably exclude things in "racialized" ways.
THE BIOLOGY
As I've said before, globalization, specifically pan-nationalism, reflects one deep seated biological tendency now being probed by groups. It is operationalized by an out-group focussed, no-borders societal approach. But his increases the likelyhood of severe gaming (freeloading). If norms can't keep up with things, the adaptiveness of your group implodes.
That, is what people fear about the US right now. In order to win an election, the blue side opened things up so much, so quickly, in such a norm breaking way, it was going to be near impossible for faith in rule of law to stay. The red side's fight against systemic bias in the system is similarly burning up social cohesion capital.
So while I think Hillary certainly used her dirty political machine to nail Trump, and while I think corrupt Biden decided to play in the gutter to hit Trump and save his son (& political elites) from jail, I think it wouldn't matter who won or who didn't. The US is now functionally ungovernable, and the structural forces that led it to be that way are increasing and really can't be tamped down.
CONCLUSION
So while I would have preferred a purge of the deep state, more legs to the current Israeli peace movement, and a removal of woke religion from public institutions, it seems like the deep-state's supporting edifices have finally proved too much for Trump. The odds were never in his favour. Covid and the leverage it gave for voting norm shifts proved too much for non-elite populism to overcome. Big tech thumbs were just enough to edge it out. Trump's achille's heel was always getting too many enemies. But it was also his strategic strength. It caused everyone to fire all their guns. Sometimes the superposition proves just too much.
Here's one rough approach to the potential scope of fraud - just about what one needs to eke over the edge. (And I suspect NV and AZ are doing the same for Trump)
ReplyDeletehttps://www.citizenfreepress.com/breaking/alert-why-does-biden-have-so-many-more-votes-than-democrat-senators-in-swing-states/
As a reminder... mail in voting (not secured absentee voting). How does this mesh with a populace who thinks someone is "literally Hitler"? Or has few compunctions about burning buildings down for their cause? Or is KKK level racist and sees some way to get at the target of their angst while supporting their allies?
ReplyDeletehttps://nypost.com/2020/08/29/political-insider-explains-voter-fraud-with-mail-in-ballots/
The best analysis is probably to compare voter turnout and downballot discrepancies. But, that will never be actionable. And so this election will always be contested. In the end - the system always wins. Especially when governance, religion, and aspirant elites coalesce so perfectly.